MAKALAH
PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA
“ NERACA PEMBAYARAN, ARUS MODAL ASING DAN
UTANG LUAR NEGERI ”
Disusun Oleh:
Nama : Rido Haritsyah ( 25215934
)
Aditya Hermawan ( 20215181 )
Rusdi Rasyidi ( 26215304 )
Kelas : 1EB21
Chapter I
A. The balance of payments
The balance of payments is an overview that summarizes
transactions between residents of a country with a population of other
countries for a certain period (usually one year). The balance of payments
includes the purchase and sale of goods and services, grants from individuals
and foreign governments, and the balance of payments transactions
finansial.Umumnya divided on the current account and balance of traffic capital
and financial account, and the item financial items.
The balance of payments includes the purchase and sale
of goods and services, grants from individuals and foreign governments, and
financial transactions. Here are grouping items in the balance of payments
abroad:
• The trade balance, is a group of transactions related to
import-export activities of goods both oil and non-oil and gas.
• Balance of services, is a group of transactions related to
import-export activities in the service sector.
• The current account, the combined trade balance and
balance of services. If more posts cash inflows (exports) then the value of
this balance will run a surplus, and vice versa
• The balance of traffic capital, is a group of items
relating to the traffic capital net government (the difference between the loan
and the repayment of principal) and traffic Net private capital, following
traffic net capital more represents the difference between the reception of
naming the capital BUMN foreign payments.
• The difference is not taken into account
• Balance traffic monetary, is a group of items related to
changes in foreign exchange reserves.
Under the transaction, the balance of payments can be
divided into two kinds :
- Debit transactions, transactions which causes current
to flow money (foreign exchange) from domestic to overseas. This transaction is
called the transaction a negative (-), the transaction leads to reduced foreign
exchange reserves (deficit).
- Credit transactions, transactions which causes current
to flow money (income) from abroad into the country. This transaction is called
the transaction a positive (+), the transaction will increase the country's
reserves (surplus).
While based components, the balance of payments are classified as follows :
- Balance of current account (Current Account), the current
account which records all transactions of export and import goods, comparison
of the value of exports and imports of goods, investment income, payment of
principal repayments of foreign debt, and the balance of the shipment and
transfer of money from the dank All good overseas conducted by government or
private.
- Balance Sheet Transactions Capital (Capital Account),
capital accounts which record the value of direct investment private sector
foreign (Foreign Ditect Invesdment), foreign loans granted by perbanakan
international private and pinjamana and grants from negaraa judgments or donor
agencies such as the IMF and the world bank.
- Balance Sheet Cash (Cash Account) or the International
Balance, balance sheet cash is essentially a balance between total expenditure
transactions that exist in the current account to the capital account exceeds
the total receipts.
Chapter II
Definition
of Capital Flow Log
Capital
Inflow / Capital Flow Log is a flow of funds into the domestic economy from
abroad that describe the purchase of securities (Financial Securities) and
ASSETS (Assets) by foreign physical or borrowing from abroad.
Huge capital inflows include the receipt of money by
a state of one or more other countries, the donor countries. Some reasons for
the transfer of funds between countries is:
1. MULTINATIONAL INVESTMENT directly by the company
in the form of physical assets such as industrial establishments
2. Purchase of marketable securities in the country
which is regarded as an attractive investment PORTFOLIO
3. The Government domestic borrowing from foreign
governments or international banks to overcome TRADE BALANCE (BALANCE OF
PAYMENTS) is defesit in the short term.
4. Speculation about the currency exchange rate
(EXCHANGE RATE) in the country and the interest rate for the foreseeable
future, an expectation of the appreciation of the currency resulted in capital
inflows as hopes of speculators to earn capital gains after the currency's
appreciation. In contrast, capital outflows (capital outflow) is the payment of
money from one country to another for such reasons that have been mentioned
above.
CASE STUDY AND
ANALYSIS
Globalization and economic liberalization
has brought renewal very fast and far-reaching impact on the economy, both
domestically and on the international level. Increasing integration of various
aspects of a country's economy with the world economy led to an increase in the
flow of goods as well as money and capital between countries. The presence of
these foreign capital inflows can indirectly drive the development of the
financial sector to grow more advanced and will ultimately spur economic
growth. In connection with the flow of foreign capital into quite heavy, it
will affect the stability of the Indonesian economy from the aspect of external
shocks such as the exchange rate at any time. The purpose of this study was to
find out how big the influence of capital inflow on the rupiah, to analyze how
the influence of capital inflow shocks to the exchange rate. As well as other
macroeconomic variables determine the effect on the movement of the exchange
rate. The analytical method used in this research is the analysis method of
Vector Auto Regression (VAR), followed by Vector Error Correction Model (VECM).
The estimation results VECM model of research shows that the movement of the
exchange rate in the short term is significantly influenced by the exchange
rate variable itself on the lag first and inflation, while in the long term
shows that the variable capital inflow, inflation, GDP, interest rates, and
trade openness significantly affect the fluctuation of the exchange rate.
Variable capital inflow, inflation, interest rates, and the positive impact of trade
openness, causing the exchange rate to depreciate. While the GDP variable
negative effect, it will cause the exchange rate to appreciate. Response of the
real exchange rate shocks due to capital inflow as well as other macroeconomic
variables such as inflation, GDP, interest rates, and trade openness led to
real exchange rate fluctuations. The influence of capital inflow shocks affect
the fluctuation of the exchange rate in the range of the initial period up to
the period of the 17th. FEVD results indicate that the real exchange rate
variance explained by the dominant variable shock on the exchange rate and
inflation itself until the end of the period. While shocks to the variable
capital inflow, as well as macroeconomic variables such as GDP, interest rate
and trade openness may explain the lack of real exchange rate because the
effect is very small. The advice given author to see the results of this study
are: (1) The government should have to limit the amount of capital inflow in
Indonesia because of an increase in capital inflow in order to improve the
movement of the exchange rate is not effective and only make a small
contribution in controlling the movement of the exchange rate rupiah. (2) The
Government should undertake appropriate policies in order to increase that
occurred in the capital inflow could characterize an increase to the offer of
foreign currency coming into the domestic market. Besides the need for handling
the exchange rate itself and the management of inflation in Indonesia because of
the exchange rate and inflation the previous year had a considerable influence
on the stability of the rupiah.
Chapter
III
Definition, Function,
Purpose, and Types of Debt
A. Definition of Debt
Debt or in this context the country's debt by Act No. 1 of
2004 is an amount of money that must be paid by the central government and / or
liabilities of the central government that can be valued in money based on the
legislation in force, the agreement, or based on other reasons legitimate ,
Debt is often a thorny issue in the national scope, as has been ingrained in
the minds of the majority of the general public a doctrine that gives a bad
signal to the debt, particularly the country's debt. But apparently the debt is
one important part in setting fiscal policy (APBN) which is also a PART of a
large system called economic management.
The purpose of economic management are:
1. Creating prosperity of the people in the form of:
a. Creation of employment opportunities.
b. Reduce poverty.
c. Menguatkanpertumbuhanekonomi.
2. Creating security.
B. Government in Budget
Budget of the State or commonly abbreviated state budget is
the central government's annual financial plan approved by the Council of
Representatives (DPR). Budget details the systematic on planned revenue to be
received and the value of the maximum ceiling to be spent by the state.
Indonesian state budget is still implementing deficit budgeting system. This is
why there is a column to fill the funding in the state budget revenues from
financing (net) needed to cover the lack of state revenue. To cover the revenue
shortfall that country a lot of ways you can choose from the many options such
as a sale of assets, debts and others. But of all the debt (regardless of type)
is the instrument most frequently used by the government in the implementation
of the budget, as it has a level of risk that can be controlled, high degree of
flexibility (in terms of time, type and source), and a very large capacity.
C. Functions of Government
The function of the country's debt will be:
1. Cover Budget Deficit
2. The offsetting of cash on short-term cash needs in the
implementation of expenditure that can not be postponed
3. The solution in the government debt portfolio management
is certainly intended to reduce the burden of debt to finance spending in the
budget in subsequent years
Of these functions, it can be concluded that the debt is a
way to solve the problem without causing new problems. However, this definition
can only be justified if the debt can be well managed in accordance with a
predetermined plan.
D. Interest Debt Management
Long-Term Goals:
1. Securing the state budget through debt financing
requirements with minimal cost on the level of risk control that fiscal
sustainability can be maintained
2. Support efforts to create a market of state securities
(SBN) deep, active and liquid
Short Term Objectives:
Ensuring the availability of funds to cover the deficit and
debt principal repayment obligations in a timely and efficient
E. Types of Debt
Loan. There are two types of loans, namely:
1. Foreign Debt
May come from the World Bank, Asian Development Bank,
Islamic Development Bank and bilateral creditors (Japan, Germany, France etc.),
as well as the Export Credits. Foreign loans are divided into two types,
namely:
a. Loan Program:
For budget support and disbursements associated with the
fulfillment of the Policy Matrix in the field of activities to achieve the MDGs
(poverty alleviation, education, eradication of corruption), community
development, policy related to climate change and infrastructure. change and
infrastructure.
b. Loan Project:
To finance infrastructure projects in various sectors
(transport, energy, etc.); projects for poverty reduction (PNPM).
2. Loans of Interior
a. Government Regulation (PP) No .: 54 Year 2008 on
Procedures for Procurement and Subsidiary Loan Home Affairs by the Government;
b. Derived from the State Owned Enterprises (SOEs); Local
Government and Regional Company;
c. To finance its activities in order to empower the
domestic industry and the development of infrastructure for public services;
investment activities that generate revenue.
Government Securities (SBN) in Rupiah and foreign currency,
tradable and non-tradable, fixed & variable:
1. Government Securities (SUN)
a. Treasury Bills
(T-Bills / T-Bills): Short-term securities (s.d. 12bln);
b. Treasury Bond
(> 1 yr)
1) Coupon Bond
a) Tradable: ORI, FR / VR bond, global bond
b) Non-tradable: SRBI for BLBI, and Securities / SU to BI
for restructuring and bank restructuring
2) Zero coupon
2. Shariah Securities (SBSN) / Sukuk in Rupiah and foreign
currencies with various structures, such as Ijarah, Musharaka, Istisna etc.
a. SBSN short term (Islamic T-Bills); SBSN Ritail (Sukri);
b. SBSN long term (IFR / Ijarah Fixed Rate; Global Sukuk;
SDHI / Sukuk Fund Haji Indonesia).
Analysis:
Information about the main factors that
cause the increase in the inflation rate is very necessary before the
government takes appropriate policies to curb inflation are exaggerated in
order to create economic stability.
